About this blog

What’s this all about?

This is a home for various mathematical/statistical modelling projects I’ve done for my own pleasure and learning, with the occasional detour into exploratory data analysis, and programming. Common themes will become aparant, but be prepared for analysis of cycling, justice, and bats.

There are plenty of blogs out there explaining how to data wrangle in a given programming language, or implement specific models. I’m indebted to people for creating that content, but my aim is somewhat different. I’m aiming to create case studies for analytical projects: explaining my workflow, why I’ve chosen models, and some of the mathematical rationale/intuition behind these decisions.For that reason, the code (predominantly in R, and Stan) behind these projects is available but by default not shown.

Why Infrequently Frequentist?

Most of the problems I’m analysing here are in the realm of statistical modelling, which neccessarily brings up the Bayesian/Frequentist debate. I don’t have a formal philosophical stance that one is right and the other is wrong, but my track record indicates that I am infrequently frequentist, or basically Bayesian.

My rationale for leaning towards Bayesian solutions are hardly original, but can be summarised (in decreasing order of significance to me) as:

For some more nuanced (and authoritative) sources that have lead me to those views:

About Me

I’m currently working for the UK Civil Service, as a data scientist within Her Majesties Courts and Tribunals Service (HMCTS) supporting the recovery programme of the courts from the CV19 pandemic.

In previous lives I’ve been the analytical advisor to the senior judiciary of England and Wales, provided analysis for the UK’s EU and International Fisheries negotiations teams ahead of Brexit, and optimised how offenders are allocated to prisons within the English and Welsh prison estate.

Prior to all that I completed a PhD in mathematics at the University of Warwick, specialising in probability theory and statistical physics.